Posted odds are converted to implied probability, normalized for sportsbook margin, and weighted by book profile.
Transparency and methodology
EmpirePicks should be judged by reproducible pricing logic, clear limitations, and auditable records. The public product does not fabricate outcomes, ROI, CLV, or confidence signals.
Closing-line value is evaluated against self-collected market history when a close snapshot exists.
ROI is computed only for validation events with matching persisted outcomes. Missing outcomes stay excluded.
What is tracked
- Recommendation-time fair probability, fair American odds, displayed book, and displayed price.
- Market history snapshots when durable persistence is configured.
- Closing-line comparisons when a matching close reference exists.
- Outcome-linked ROI only after persisted win, loss, push, or void records exist.
What is not claimed
- No fabricated historical returns.
- No inferred wins or losses when outcome data is missing.
- No guarantee that positive expected value produces short-run profit.
- No public ROI claim until the underlying sample is reproducible and large enough to review.
Record-tracking launch requirement
Before a public record page publishes ROI, units won, win rate, or CLV, it should include sample size, settled sample size, sport and market filters, push/void/unknown counts, and the active closing-line reference.